Update: Click here for the most recent jobs statistics.
On the first Friday of every month, I update the unemployment numbers so that I can compare the unemployment rate under President George W. Bush with the unemployment rate under President Obama at that time. The genesis of this ritual began when I felt compelled to respond to some left-leaning sites that were comparing Obama’s first two years and four months in office with Bush’s last and worst economic year (the above chart shows the most recent incarnation of this narrative).
In October, the private sector added a robust 104,000 jobs in the twentieth consecutive month of private sector job growth. This development is very positive news. The country also had a net employment gain of 80,000 total jobs (private and public). That said, 80,000 still falls short of the 125,000 jobs needed each month just to keep pace with the growth of the working-age population.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate declined slightly from 9.1% to 9.0%. This number remains 1.7 percentage points worse than President Bush’s last full month in office in December 2008. It also marks 33 consecutive months in which the unemployment rate has been 8% or higher in the 34th month of the Obama presidency.
Furthermore, the unemployment rate only accounts for the percentage of the unemployed who are actively seeking employment. It does not include people who have given up on finding employment. The good news is that the month ended with more people employed at the end of October than were employed at the end of September, and that the civilian labor force increased slower than the number of new net employees.
The civilian labor force ended September at 154.0 million vs. October’s 154.2 million. 140.3 million people had jobs in October, which was an increase of about 277,000 people from September versus about 181,000 people entered the labor force.
Both the Bush and Obama presidencies have been marked by a steady decline in the labor force participation rate. The labor force participation rate measures the number of people in the labor force as a percentage of the total working-age population. The labor force participation rate remained unchanged in October from 64.2% in the previous month.
That said, since the civilian labor force is the denominator in the unemployment rate, its slightly smaller increase relative to the increase in the total number of employed Americans is an important reason why the unemployment rate only ticked down by a tenth of a percentage point to 9.0%.
Putting the Numbers into Perspective
The employment statistics during President Bush’s period in office continue to look better than those under President Obama’s to date. Over President Bush’s tenure, the private sector lost a net 653,000 jobs, assuming that he gets credit for all jobs lost in January 2009 and none for those lost in January 2001. I changed my methodology in response to a left-leaning blogger‘s fair point “that CES estimates represent information reported by survey respondents for their pay periods that include the 12th of the month.” Hence, any subsequent numbers for jobs created near the end of January would likely appear in the February numbers.
If one attributes the first 19 days of January 2009′s job losses to Bush, and the remaining 11 days of job losses to Obama, the private sector shed 346,000 jobs during the Bush administration (the private sector gained a net 141,000 jobs if one attributes all of January 2009′s job numbers to Obama, and all of January 2001′s numbers to Bush). Surprisingly, this number includes the 3.78 million private sector jobs lost in 2008, and an additional 841,000 in 2009 (515,000 if one attributes the first 19 days of January 2009′s job losses to Bush).
In contrast, under President Obama’s administration, the private sector has still lost a net 1.44 million private sector jobs (1.77 million if one attributes the remaining 11 days of job losses in January 2009 to Obama, and 2.29 million if one attributes all of January 2009′s losses to him).
Again, the point of this argument is not to assess blame on either administrations’ policy. It simply puts the numbers into perspective.
For each job the private sector cut under George W. Bush, the private sector eliminated ~2 jobs under Barack Obama (if one attributes January 2009′s job losses to Obama, the private sector eliminated ~16 jobs for every job it created under Bush). While the private sector job outlook has improved recently, the economy still must create 1.44 million private sector jobs to break even.
The country still has a long way to go to restoring full employment and the President is running out of time. According to The New York Times, no sitting President since Franklin Roosevelt has won re-election when unemployment was over 7.2% on election day.
And President Obama is no FDR.