In its recent edition, The Economist credits former President George W. Bush for encouraging Arab democracy. I think he deserves blame.
Given the volatility inherent in radical Sunni Islam, it is not in America’s interest to encourage a freedom agenda in the Arab world. While President Bush ardently believed that one important rationale for invading Iraq was to spread democracy to the Middle East, the dominant reasons were to ensure the free flow of crude oil and to eliminate Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction.
So where then will Arab democracy lead?
Weimar Arabism Leads to Islamo-Fascism
Arab democracy will likely lead to disaffection amongst the people, because it will not translate into economic results. The structural impediments in the Egyptian economy and its population demographics are simply too overwhelming to expect a divided electorate to achieve a national consensus before the people again turn against the government.
Even the United States has been unable to deliver jobs fast enough to its citizens before they voted out the controlling party in recent mid-term elections.
Future frustration amongst the Arab populace will likely culminate in a Sharia dictatorship much as Germany’s Weimar Republic led to a Nazi dictatorship.
Some believe such an outcome is inconceivable given that Egypt has an educated and secular middle class. However, people forget that Germany also had a prosperous and educated middle class, yet Nazism still took root in that nation in the 1930s.
Mark my words: Egypt’s unrest will not end well for anyone, especially if the Muslim Brotherhood gains power.