Today I filled out my predictions for the 2012 presidential election using CNN’s electoral map, and I’m predicting a stalemate. That’s right — a stalemate.
I predict that Romney wins Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida, while Obama takes Ohio, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. This scenario leads to both candidates garnering 269 electoral votes.
Unfortunately, this potential outcome is not the only scenario that could result in a tie. If Romney wins Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire, and Obama locks up Virginia, Colorado, and Wisconsin, then the election would result in another electoral tie.
If the election results in an electoral tie, there would, of course, be numerous legal challenges as both sides strive to delegitimize the other’s claim to power. There would also likely be a concerted campaign to convince electors to change their votes.
If those efforts failed, the House would tally up the “electoral votes in a special session of the next Congress in January, and if no candidate reaches a majority, then each state’s delegation in the House casts a vote for president.”
How likely do you think a stalemate is?