Tag Archives: Egypt

Islamists on Track to Win Egyptian Election

Posted on Wednesday, November 30, 2011 by Sean Patrick Hazlett

I predicted earlier this year that the Arab Spring would likely result in further Islamic radicalization of the Arab world. According to The New York Times, the “mainstream” Muslim Brotherhood has captured about forty percent of the Egyptian vote, based … Continue reading →

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Posted in Defense, Energy Security, International Security, Middle East, Policy, Politics, Predictions | Tagged Arab Spring, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Egypt, Islam, Islamists, Muslim Brotherhood | 14 Comments

Friedman Blames Israelis For Consequences of Arab Spring

Posted on Sunday, September 18, 2011 by Sean Patrick Hazlett

Thomas Friedman appears to be attempting to distance himself from the disastrous consequences of all the columns on the Arab world he wrote over the past few years. These op-eds predicted the “wonders” of democracy would miraculously bring hope and rationality to the Middle … Continue reading →

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Posted in Defense, Energy Security, International Security, Middle East, Peak Oil, Policy, Terrorism, War | Tagged Arab Spring, Democracy, Egypt, Middle East, Neoconservatives, Palestine, Syria, Thomas Friedman, United Nations | 15 Comments

Arab Spring Fallout: Egyptian Mob Overruns Israeli Embassy

Posted on Monday, September 12, 2011 by Sean Patrick Hazlett

In February, I predicted that Egypt’s democratic revolution would lead to a rise in regional instability, particularly between Egypt and Israel. Late last month, I argued that Egypt’s transition to democracy was entering an extremely unstable phase, after thousands of protestors … Continue reading →

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Posted in Defense, Energy Security, International Security, Middle East, Policy, Politics, War | Tagged Arab Spring, Cairo, Egypt, Egyptian military, Israel, Israeli Embassy attack | 2 Comments

Libya: Operational Success, Strategic Failure

Posted on Friday, September 2, 2011 by Sean Patrick Hazlett

Last week, Bloomberg’s Jonathan Alter posed a tantalizing question: “you think Obama’s been a bad president? Prove it.” More specifically, Alter challenged the president’s detractors to identify specific administration policy failures. On Monday, conservative David Frum responded to Alter’s throwing down the gauntlet … Continue reading →

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Posted in Defense, Energy Security, International Security, Middle East, Nuclear Power, Nuclear proliferation, Policy, Politics, War | Tagged Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Kim Jong Il, Libya, Muammar Qaddafi, North Korea, President Obama, Saddam Hussein, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey | 6 Comments

Strife in the Sinai: Is Egypt’s and Israel’s Peace at an End?

Posted on Saturday, August 20, 2011 by Sean Patrick Hazlett

“The Egyptians do not accept what has happened, and it means that Israel should take care. If they continue their behavior toward the Palestinians and the peace process, it means that the situation will escalate more.” — Mohamed Bassiouni, a … Continue reading →

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Posted in Defense, Energy Security, International Security, Media, Middle East, Peak Oil, Policy, Politics, War | Tagged Egypt, Gaza, Hamas, Hosni Mubarak, Israel, The New York Times | 11 Comments

Game Theory for Middle Eastern Dictators

Posted on Monday, August 15, 2011 by Sean Patrick Hazlett

Towards a Dominant Strategy In “Saudis Shrug Off Day of Rage: Three Strategies to Suppress a Revolt Before It Starts“, I argued that there are two archetypal models for a dictator to deal with popular revolts in the Middle East: crush them or … Continue reading →

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Posted in Defense, Energy Security, International Security, Mathematics, Middle East, Policy, Politics, Predictions, War | Tagged Arab Spring, Egypt, Energy security, Hamas, Hezbollah, Hosni Mubarak, Iraq, Israel, Muammar Qaddafi, Oil, Policy, Politics, President Bashar al-Assad, President Obama, Saudi Arabia, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali | 9 Comments

Obama’s Call for Israel to Base Negotiations on Pre-1967 Borders (Part III): A Political Assessment

Posted on Friday, May 27, 2011 by Sean Patrick Hazlett

In my post earlier this week, I concluded returning to Israel’s pre-1967 borders would make the country difficult to defend against Arab aggression, even with its vastly superior military. Even with a patchwork of land swaps, it would still be a challenge for Israel to defend. Leaving … Continue reading →

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Posted in Defense, Energy Security, International Security, Media, Middle East, Policy, Politics, Terrorism, War | Tagged 9/11, Desert warfare, Egypt, Israel, Israelis, Jews, Jordan, Lebanon, OPFOR, Palestine, Palestinians, Palestinians dancing in the streets, Soviet Motorized Rifle Regiment, Syria, West Bank | Leave a comment

Obama’s Call for Israel to Base Negotiations on Pre-1967 Borders (Part II): A Military Assessment

Posted on Tuesday, May 24, 2011 by Sean Patrick Hazlett

In yesterday’s post, I indicated my desire to reflect upon President Obama’s proposal rather than fall prey to my deeply visceral initial reaction. In this post, I decided to tackle what I know best first: the situation’s military dynamics. From a military perspective, the … Continue reading →

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Felling Pharaohs (Part VI): The Beatings Continue Because Morale Has Not Improved

Posted on Sunday, March 6, 2011 by Sean Patrick Hazlett

A little over a month ago in the midst of Egyptian unrest, I warned that U.S. policy-makers should “be very afraid” of these developments because of their impact on crude oil prices. Now that Libya is in flames, its oil … Continue reading →

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Posted in Clean Energy, Defense, Energy Security, Finance and Economics, International Security, Middle East, Policy, Politics, Predictions | Tagged Egypt, Libya, Oil, Saudi Arabia, Shia | 2 Comments

The Great Famine of 2011: Food, Fossil Fuels, and Fragmentation

Posted on Tuesday, February 22, 2011 by Sean Patrick Hazlett

“Our people take pride in the fact that they are blessed with great leaders from generation to generation” — High-level North Korean official on Kim Jong Un succession Poor Weather Reduces Crop Yields; Reduced Crop Yields Lead to Increased Prices… … Continue reading →