Source: The Economist
The Economist‘s Daily Chart blog publishes a lot of creative and fascinating charts each week. A little over a week ago, the blog published the chart above, which tracks the number of articles in the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal that mention the word “recession.” Since 1990, as mentions of the r-word rise, so does the probability that the nation is in a recession.
As the chart above shows, it appears that the country is heading into one, or may well already be there.
Reflections of a Rational Republican 
I wonder if this is a case of the chicken before the egg. Only a short while ago most economists were saying that we were not headed for another recession, but that a recovery is/was very, very fragile. What’s changed over the past 6 months are the self-inflicted wounds, such as the debt-ceiling debacle, that seem clearly designed to sow further doubt, uncertainty and despair, stroke even more distrust of government, and create more obstacles to finding solutions, at least for the next 14 months. Combine this with the steady drumbeat of negativity and it’s no wonder that Americans aren’t spending and in turn businesses aren’t investing or hiring. So which comes first: real conditions that lead to recessions or articles that continue to feed the uncertainty that brings on recessions? At least we know which one Mitch McConnell, John Boehner, Paul Ryan and Eric Cantor are betting on.
Chuck,
Politics aside, all the economic indicators are blaring recession. The yield curve is inverted, companies in certain sectors are issuing negative preannouncements, and the rate of jobs growth is declining (i.e., 0 net jobs added in August). It appears we are headed for a double dip.
Probably so. But, interestingly enough, alot of companies aren’t issuing negative news but positive news, e.g. profits, some sales growth, and the recent negative job growth is heavily skewed by government layoffs. In fact, the August numbers weren’t zero at all, but included 45,000 “unemployed” striking Verizon workers (who went back to work in 2 weeks) and another 30,000 public sector workers who lost jobs in all the deficit-cutting frenzy. 75,000 private sector jobs ain’t great, but it ain’t “0” either. The glass is only half empty when you see it or depict it that way.