Top 10 Predictions for 2011: Results

At the beginning of 2011, my first blog post covered my top 10 predictions for 2011. Since I like to hold myself accountable for things I wrote in the past, now is the time I assess how I (and my readers) did.

To make things easier, I have included my original post in its entirety, but have included the results below each prediction in blue (if I was correct) and red (if I was wrong). I will also use the same coding methodology for my readers, who, it turns out, were right more often than I was.

Without further ado, here are my predictions with the subsequent results: Continue reading

Posted in China, Energy Security, Finance and Economics, Predictions | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

The Conflict over Iran’s Nuclear Program Continues

On December 20th, I cataloged several incidents that occurred during the past two years, indicating that a covert war between the West (including Israel) and Iran was well underway. In recent days, several prominent American defense officials have begun signaling that the conflict is about to enter its next phase. This article updates the chain of events to include those that occurred between December 20th and December 29th. Continue reading

Posted in Defense, Energy Security, Finance and Economics, International Security, Middle East, Nuclear Power, Nuclear proliferation, Policy, Politics, Terrorism, War | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

12 Technology Predictions for 2112: Throwing Down the Gauntlet

In a previous comment thread, Professor Scott Erb suggested it would be interesting to hear people’s predictions about future technologies they believe will be available by 2112.

So, I am throwing down the gauntlet now. If you have a blog, and are interested in participating in this challenge, please post your 12 predictions on January 1, 2012 on your site, and let me know you have done so in the comment section here. I will include your predictions on this site in a subsequent post that day.

Good luck!

Posted in Mathematics, Predictions, Science, Technology | Tagged , , , , | 4 Comments

Predictions from 1900?

As we are about to enter 2012, I thought I would post some interesting predictions supposedly written in 1900. I discovered this list on PBS.org which purports to be predictions from The Ladies Home Journal written in 1900.

To be frank, the predictions are so accurate (11 of 13 have come to pass, by my count, which I have highlighted in blue) that I find it rather implausible that someone predicted them in 1900.

Here is the list: Continue reading

Posted in General, Predictions, Science, Technology | Tagged , , , | 15 Comments

ROARR’s Guiding Principles (Part VII): A Strong National Defense Is the Cornerstone of a Robust Republic

In Part I of this series, I argued a fundamental reason our government is broken is the political selection process favoring ideological warriors over pragmatic problem solvers. I introduced my “Funnel of Futility” theory: as ideology becomes increasingly important in one’s decision-making process, the more futile working with an ideological opposite becomes. In contrast, as more data-intensive decision-makers interact, the partisan gap narrows, and government becomes more useful and efficient.

In Part II of this series, I suggested that government has overshot its equilibrium position in the modern U.S. economy, and Americans ought to make every effort to rein it in. That said, I suggested this site does not advocate a wide-ranging dismantling of every government department. As such, I advocated that the scalpel is always preferable to the hack saw when rolling back government overreach.

In Part III of this series, I maintained that equality of opportunity does not imply equality of outcomes. I further maintained that this site whole-heartedly and enthusiastically supports institutions that promote and recruit people based on a purely meritocratic system. The more data that an institution uses to measure its people, the better. That said, Reflections of a Rational Republican vehemently opposes government favoritism towards certain groups based on immutable characteristics such as race or sex. Rewarding certain groups who have earned their status, such as veterans, is acceptable since that is based on a person’s actions rather than something that one is either born with or not.

In Part IV of this series, I argued that free markets are preferable to tightly controlled ones. I further maintained that though markets may be chaotic, they are the single most efficient mechanism for price discovery in modern societies. Tightly controlled markets tend to be far more inefficient than free ones, because controlling entities like governments have no more information about that market than most individual participants. When governments impose too many regulations or try to maintain tight control of different industries, prices rise, and competition and quality tend to weaken. I concluded that the market is not a force of good or evil. It is like water. It will always take the path of least resistance.

In Part V of this series, I suggested that government does have a role in mitigating negative externalities and market failures that unencumbered capitalism can generate. Specifically, government has a role in establishing systems and regulations that curb negative externalities when business has little incentive to do so. Government also has a role in helping reduce the negative impacts when markets fail. That said, government regulations should balance their costs against their projected benefits. Heavy-handed and unnecessary regulation is worse than useless — it can result in real damage to the economy and people’s lives. In fact, Reflections of a Rational Republican believes that in recent years, the pendulum has swung too far toward overbearing regulation. While this site believes the market is efficient most of the time, government does have a role for softening the blows of more extreme market volatility, market failure, and the impact of business’ negative externalities.

In Part VI of this series, I maintained that individual rights trump communitarian impulses. Reflections of a Rational Republican is committed to adhering to Madison’s principles of supporting a representative government that protects the minority from the tyranny of the majority. So long as an individual rights do not harm those of another, the government ought to defend these rights against communitarian impulses.

Today, I will introduce the seventh and final official guiding principle of Reflections of a Rational Republican — a strong national defense is the cornerstone of a robust republic. Continue reading

Posted in Blogging, Business, Clean Energy, Clean Tech, Climate Change, Defense, Education, Energy Security, Finance and Economics, Food Security, Healthcare, International Security, Leadership, Mathematics, Media, Peak Oil, Policy, Politics, Socialism, Taxes, Technology, Writing | Tagged , , , | 5 Comments

Liberal Hypocrites and Their “Fair Share”

I discovered the following Daily Caller video courtesy of American Elephants. The video highlights wealthy Democrats who are advocating for the top 1% in income to pay their “fair share.”

When the Daily Caller reporter in this video provides these liberals with an opportunity to pay their “fair share” by making an on-the-spot donation to the U.S. Treasury Department, not one liberal advocate is willing to put their money where their mouth is.

Not one.

I am actually baffled by this hypocrisy, and I frankly cannot understand it.

So, in all seriousness, can any self-described liberal who follows this blog please describe why someone advocating for higher taxes would not voluntarily pay more of them when presented with the opportunity?

In all honesty, I am looking for the best argument someone can muster for this behavior because I simply cannot understand it.

Posted in Business, Finance and Economics, Media, Policy, Politics, Taxes | Tagged , , , , , , , | 17 Comments

ROARR’s Guiding Principles (Part VI): Individual Rights Trump Communitarian Impulses

In Part I of this series, I argued a fundamental reason our government is broken is the political selection process favoring ideological warriors over pragmatic problem solvers. I introduced my “Funnel of Futility” theory: as ideology becomes increasingly important in one’s decision-making process, the more futile working with an ideological opposite becomes. In contrast, as more data-intensive decision-makers interact, the partisan gap narrows, and government becomes more useful and efficient.

In Part II of this series, I suggested that government has overshot its equilibrium position in the modern U.S. economy, and Americans ought to make every effort to rein it in. That said, I suggested this site does not advocate a wide-ranging dismantling of every government department. As such, I advocated that the scalpel is always preferable to the hack saw when rolling back government overreach.

In Part III of this series, I maintained that equality of opportunity does not imply equality of outcomes. I further maintained that this site whole-heartedly and enthusiastically supports institutions that promote and recruit people based on a purely meritocratic system. The more data that an institution uses to measure its people, the better. That said, Reflections of a Rational Republican vehemently opposes government favoritism towards certain groups based on immutable characteristics such as race or sex. Rewarding certain groups who have earned their status, such as veterans, is acceptable since that is based on a person’s actions rather than something that one is either born with or not.

In Part IV of this series, I argued that free markets are preferable to tightly controlled ones. I further maintained that though markets may be chaotic, they are the single most efficient mechanism for price discovery in modern societies. Tightly controlled markets tend to be far more inefficient than free ones, because controlling entities like governments have no more information about that market than most individual participants. When governments impose too many regulations or try to maintain tight control of different industries, prices rise, and competition and quality tend to weaken. I concluded that the market is not a force of good or evil. It is like water. It will always take the path of least resistance.

In Part V of this series, I suggested that government does have a role in mitigating negative externalities and market failures that unencumbered capitalism can generate. Specifically, government has a role in establishing systems and regulations that curb negative externalities when business has little incentive to do so. Government also has a role in helping reduce the negative impacts when markets fail. That said, government regulations should balance their costs against their projected benefits. Heavy-handed and unnecessary regulation is worse than useless — it can result in real damage to the economy and people’s lives. In fact, Reflections of a Rational Republican believes that in recent years, the pendulum has swung too far toward overbearing regulation. While this site believes the market is efficient most of the time, government does have a role for softening the blows of more extreme market volatility, market failure, and the impact of business’ negative externalities.

Today, I will introduce the sixth official guiding principle of Reflections of a Rational Republican — individual rights trump communitarian impulses. Continue reading

Posted in Blogging, Business, Clean Energy, Clean Tech, Climate Change, Defense, Education, Energy Security, Finance and Economics, Food Security, Healthcare, International Security, Leadership, Mathematics, Media, Peak Oil, Policy, Politics, Socialism, Taxes, Technology, Writing | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

ROARR’s Guiding Principles (Part V): …But Government Has a Role in Mitigating Negative Externalities and Market Failures That Unencumbered Capitalism Can Generate

In Part I of this series, I argued a fundamental reason our government is broken is the political selection process favoring ideological warriors over pragmatic problem solvers. I introduced my “Funnel of Futility” theory: as ideology becomes increasingly important in one’s decision-making process, the more futile working with an ideological opposite becomes. In contrast, as more data-intensive decision-makers interact, the partisan gap narrows, and government becomes more useful and efficient.

In Part II of this series, I suggested that government has overshot its equilibrium position in the modern U.S. economy, and Americans ought to make every effort to rein it in. That said, I suggested this site does not advocate a wide-ranging dismantling of every government department. As such, I advocated that the scalpel is always preferable to the hack saw when rolling back government overreach.

In Part III of this series, I maintained that equality of opportunity does not imply equality of outcomes. I further maintained that this site whole-heartedly and enthusiastically supports institutions that promote and recruit people based on a purely meritocratic system. The more data that an institution uses to measure its people, the better. That said, Reflections of a Rational Republican vehemently opposes government favoritism towards certain groups based on immutable characteristics such as race or sex. Rewarding certain groups who have earned their status, such as veterans, is acceptable since that is based on a person’s actions rather than something that one is either born with or not.

In Part IV of this series, I argued that free markets are preferable to tightly controlled ones. I further maintained that though markets may be chaotic, they are the single most efficient mechanism for price discovery in modern societies. Tightly controlled markets tend to be far more inefficient than free ones, because controlling entities like governments have no more information about that market than most individual participants. When governments impose too many regulations or try to maintain tight control of different industries, prices rise, and competition and quality tend to weaken. I concluded that the market is not a force of good or evil. It is like water. It will always take the path of least resistance.

Today, I will introduce the fifth official guiding principle of Reflections of a Rational Republican — government does have a role in mitigating negative externalities and market failures that unencumbered capitalism can generate. Continue reading

Posted in Blogging, Business, Clean Energy, Clean Tech, Climate Change, Defense, Education, Energy Security, Finance and Economics, Food Security, Healthcare, International Security, Leadership, Mathematics, Media, Peak Oil, Policy, Politics, Socialism, Taxes, Technology, Writing | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

ROARR’s Guiding Principles (Part IV): Free Markets Are Preferable to Tightly Controlled Ones…

In Part I of this series, I argued a fundamental reason our government is broken is the political selection process favoring ideological warriors over pragmatic problem solvers. I introduced my “Funnel of Futility” theory: as ideology becomes increasingly important in one’s decision-making process, the more futile working with an ideological opposite becomes. In contrast, as more data-intensive decision-makers interact, the partisan gap narrows, and government becomes more useful and efficient.

In Part II of this series, I argued government has overshot its equilibrium position in the modern U.S. economy, and Americans ought to make every effort to rein it in. That said, I suggested this site does not advocate a wide-ranging dismantling of every government department. As such, I advocated that the scalpel is always preferable to the hack saw when rolling back government overreach.

In Part III of this series, I argued that equality of opportunity does not imply equality of outcomes. I further maintained that this site whole-heartedly and enthusiastically supports institutions that promote and recruit people based on a purely meritocratic system. The more data that an institution uses to measure its people, the better. That said, Reflections of a Rational Republican vehemently opposes government favoritism towards certain groups based on immutable characteristics such as race or sex. Rewarding certain groups who have earned their status, such as veterans, is acceptable since that is based on a person’s actions rather than something that one is either born with or not.

Today, I will introduce the fourth official guiding principle of Reflections of a Rational Republican — free markets are preferable to tightly controlled ones. Continue reading

Posted in Blogging, Business, Clean Energy, Clean Tech, Climate Change, Defense, Education, Energy Security, Finance and Economics, Food Security, Healthcare, International Security, Leadership, Mathematics, Media, Peak Oil, Policy, Politics, Socialism, Taxes, Technology, Writing | Tagged , , , | 7 Comments

Is President Obama’s Recent Self-Comparison with Teddy Roosevelt a Valid One?

President Barack Obama’s December 6th speech in Kansas in which he compared himself to Teddy Roosevelt just happened to coincide with a trip my wife and another couple made several weeks ago. We had the great pleasure to visit Theodore Roosevelt’s home at the Sagamore Hill National Historic Site in Oyster Bay, Long Island, New York.

Something about the juxtaposition of Teddy Roosevelt with Barack Obama troubled me. I found much to admire in TR’s life and times. Yet I find most of Barack Obama’s actions and philosophy quite in conflict with America’s heritage, and personally quite unappealing. So I thought I’d dig a little deeper by researching some of TR’s philosophies and comparing those with our current President’s. Continue reading

Posted in Finance and Economics, International Security, Leadership, Middle East, Policy, Politics, Taxes, War | Tagged , , | 15 Comments