At the beginning of 2011, my first blog post covered my top 10 predictions for 2011. Since I like to hold myself accountable for things I wrote in the past, now is the time I assess how I (and my readers) did.
To make things easier, I have included my original post in its entirety, but have included the results below each prediction in blue (if I was correct) and red (if I was wrong). I will also use the same coding methodology for my readers, who, it turns out, were right more often than I was.
Without further ado, here are my predictions with the subsequent results:
Result: The S&P 500 ended the year at 1,258, which is roughly flat for the year.
I was wrong, but 27% of my readers were right on the money – though most were wrong.
Result: The last reported unemployment rate was 8.6% in November.
Since the unemployment rate is unlikely to tick below 8% in December, my prediction was wrong. However, since 50% of my readers suggested that the unemployment rate would end somewhere between 8.0-8.9%, they should get credit for being right.
3. Oil ends the year at $110 per barrel due to a weaker dollar, activity spurred by an
economic recovery, and recurring instability in the Niger Delta.
Result: West Texas Intermediate crude ended the year trading at $98.83 per barrel. Brent crude ended the year at $107.38 per barrel.
While I wasn’t right about why oil ended the year in a range between $99 and $107 per barrel, I was in the ballpark of the range I gave readers of $100-110 per barrel. Therefore, I correctly predicted oil prices, while only 22% of my readers did.
Result: By any objective standard, Track II diplomacy did not set the stage for possible Korean reunification this year.
Therefore, I was wrong, and the majority (89%) of my readers were right.
Result: Leon Panetta is now the 23rd Secretary of Defense.
Depending on one’s definition of “widespread” and providing myself with some wiggle room for the exact causes of the violence, I will chalk this up as a reasonably accurate prediction for me and my readers.
Result: As far as I know, there were not any obvious signs of increased tension between China and India over their mutual border.
It seems both my readers’ and my predictions were wrong.
Result: The Israels and Hizbullah did not fight a limited war in 2011.
Both my readers and I got this prediction wrong.
Result: Southern Sudan chose independence in its January referendum vote.
Both my readers and I successfully predicted this outcome.
Result: The International Olympic Committee announced Pyeongchang, South Korea as the host city for the 2018 Winter Olympics.
I nailed it. My readers didn’t.
The final tally for correct predictions is as follows:
Reflections of a Rational Republican: 40% accuracy
Readers: 50% accuracy
It seems there may be something to crowdsourcing after all.