Top 10 Predictions for 2011: Results

At the beginning of 2011, my first blog post covered my top 10 predictions for 2011. Since I like to hold myself accountable for things I wrote in the past, now is the time I assess how I (and my readers) did.

To make things easier, I have included my original post in its entirety, but have included the results below each prediction in blue (if I was correct) and red (if I was wrong). I will also use the same coding methodology for my readers, who, it turns out, were right more often than I was.

Without further ado, here are my predictions with the subsequent results:

Finance and Economics
1. Buoyed by healthier signs of a recovery, the S&P500 ends the year up 15% at 1,446.

Result: The S&P 500 ended the year at 1,258, which is roughly flat for the year.

I was wrong, but 27% of my readers were right on the money – though most were wrong.

2. Unemployment experiences a modest decline ending the year at just under 8%.

Result: The last reported unemployment rate was 8.6% in November.

Since the unemployment rate is unlikely to tick below 8% in December, my prediction was wrong. However, since 50% of my readers suggested that the unemployment rate would end somewhere between 8.0-8.9%, they should get credit for being right.

3. Oil ends the year at $110 per barrel due to a weaker dollar, activity spurred by an
economic recovery, and recurring instability in the Niger Delta.

Result: West Texas Intermediate crude ended the year trading at $98.83 per barrel. Brent crude ended the year at $107.38 per barrel.

While I wasn’t right about why oil ended the year in a range between $99 and $107 per barrel, I was in the ballpark of the range I gave readers of $100-110 per barrel. Therefore, I correctly predicted oil prices, while only 22% of my readers did.

Geopolitical Developments
4. Track II diplomacy sets the stage for possible Korean reunification.

Result: By any objective standard, Track II diplomacy did not set the stage for possible Korean reunification this year.

Therefore, I was wrong, and the majority (89%) of my readers were right.

5. President Obama appoints Hillary Clinton as the 23rd Secretary of Defense (whether
Congress confirms her is another story).

Result: Leon Panetta is now the 23rd Secretary of Defense.

Therefore, I was wrong, and the majority (89%) of my readers were right.

6. Nigerian election irregularities in 2011 lead to widespread violence between the Muslim
north and Christian south as well as increased instability in the Niger Delta.

Result: Nigerian election violence left more than 500 dead in the northern state of Kaduna.

Depending on one’s definition of “widespread” and providing myself with some wiggle room for the exact causes of the violence, I will chalk this up as a reasonably accurate prediction for me and my readers.

7. China and India experience increased tension over their mutual border as China
continues to build its dam project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River.

Result: As far as I know, there were not any obvious signs of increased tension between China and India over their mutual border.

It seems both my readers’ and my predictions were wrong.

8. Spurred by their Iranian patrons, Hezbollah militants clash with Israeli forces on the
Lebanese border.

Result: The Israels and Hizbullah did not fight a limited war in 2011.

Both my readers and I got this prediction wrong.

9. Southern Sudan chooses independence in its January referendum vote.

Result: Southern Sudan chose independence in its January referendum vote.

Both my readers and I successfully predicted this outcome.

Other
10. The International Olympic Committee announces Pyeongchang, South Korea as the
host city for the 2018 Winter Olympics on July 6, 2011.

Result: The  International Olympic Committee announced Pyeongchang, South Korea as the host city for the 2018 Winter Olympics.

I nailed it. My readers didn’t.

The final tally for correct predictions is as follows:

  • Reflections of a Rational Republican: 40% accuracy
  • Readers: 50% accuracy

It seems there may be something to crowdsourcing after all.

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About Sean Patrick Hazlett

Conservative clean energy crusader, national security hawk, financial analyst, engineer, and former military officer.
This entry was posted in China, Energy Security, Finance and Economics, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

7 Responses to Top 10 Predictions for 2011: Results

  1. Nice post Sean. Hats off to you for making the predictions, not getting amnesia that you did, and updates on how you did. Not bad, as predictions, about he future are so hard.

  2. Pingback: Top 10 Predictions for 2012 | Reflections of a Rational Republican

  3. Pingback: Top 10 Predictions for 2012 | Reflections of a Rational Republican

  4. Pingback: Top 10 Predictions for 2012: Results | Reflections of a Rational Republican

  5. Pingback: Top 10 Predictions for 2013 | Reflections of a Rational Republican

  6. Pingback: Top 10 Predictions for 2013: Results | Reflections of a Rational Republican

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