Felling Pharaohs: Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid (Part II)

Shortly after the ignominious French 1954 defeat at Dien Bien Phu in Vietnam, President Eisenhower introduced the concept of Domino Theory to describe the significance of Vietnam falling under Communist influence. He warned that one Communist victory could initiate a cascade of events that could lead to “the loss of Indochina, of Burma, of Thailand” and perhaps even of Indonesia (see “The World: From Vietnam to Iraq; The Rise and Fall and Rise of the Domino Theory”).

Of Arabs, Islam, Oil, and Dominoes

Over sixty years later, the United States faces the prospect of a similar threat in the Arab world with Egypt slouching toward Babylon. Only this time, what happens could likely have an even greater impact on the average American than the Vietnam War did so many decades ago.

It boils down to one thing: oil.

When Oil and Dominoes Collide

The classic nightmare scenario is that this pan-Arab unrest spreads to Saudi Arabia, the guarantor of 12 million barrels per day of oil production capacity and the producer of an average of 10.2 million barrels per day in 2010 — nearly twelve percent of global production. With a 10.8% unemployment rate, a kleptocratic network of thousands of Saudi princelings, and 25.7 million people, Saudi Arabia is a ripe target for a populist revolt.

Popular unrest in Saudi Arabia would wreak havoc on public markets at best, and lurch the global economy into a depression at worst, as oil prices spike over sentiment of presumed future supply disruptions.

The last time a major American ally and oil superpower succumbed to a people’s revolution was in 1979. In 1978, the year before the Shah fled Iran, the country’s oil production averaged about six million barrels per day. After the Iranian Revolution began, Iranian production dropped by over half to only 2.5 million barrels per day and was completely shut down for several months (see Matthew R. Simmons, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy). The United States suddenly faced the previously inconceivable prospect that one of its primary oil suppliers went away almost overnight. Oil prices more than doubled in the aftermath.

The same is possible for Saudi Arabia.

Imagine if oil prices responded to future Saudi unrest as they had in 1980. Americans would literally be facing the prospect of $200 oil.

Perhaps the specter of Arab democracy is not a good one after all.

An even more important question is: who is to blame for these sudden uprisings?

Part III of this series will address this question and the prospects for a democratic Middle East.

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Felling Pharaohs: Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid (Part I)

Arab Discontent Abounds…

Since unrest began in Tunisia in early 2011, news outlets have reported unrest or threats of unrest in eight Arab nations including Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen, comprising a combined population of over 222 million people (see “Deadly Clashes Rock Egypt Capital”).

…While Radical Islam Marshals to Fill the Vacuum

The frustrations of the Egyptian people are understandable given thirty years of autocratic rule. The reason for fear, however, is what forces will fill the power vacuum left by Mubarak’s broken mandate as the Muslim Brotherhood waits in the wing.

Radical Sunni Islam thrives in chaos.

It filled the void in Iraq when U.S. forces overthrew Saddam’s government in 2003. It thrived in the power vacuum the Red Army left in its wake when it withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989. It has prospered in lawless Somalia for decades. It has dominated the political stage in the volatile Caucasus region after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It has forced the Chinese to send troops to its Western provinces to restore order among its restive Uighur population.

The West seems to have tacitly endorsed the mild-mannered Mohamed ElBaradei, the former Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, as an alternative to Hosni Mubarak.  Yet, other than being Egyptian, Dr. ElBaradei does not really have strong ties to Egypt. Rather, the Muslim Brotherhood, the intellectual forebears of al Qaeda and Hamas, stands in the wing ready to take power.

The Muslim Brotherhood initially kept a low profile at the advent of the crisis. However, over time, it has become increasingly assertive. Today, the group issued a statement calling for President Mubarak to step aside for a transitional government.

The Muslim Brotherhood, founded in Egypt in 1928, is the world’s oldest and largest Islamist movement and has adherents in nearly every Muslim country and in Europe and the United States. One of its prominent thinkers, Sayyid Qutb, was an advocate of violent jihad who later inspired organizations like al Qaeda (see “As Islamist Group Rises, Its Intentions Are Unclear“).

Like Hezbollah and Hamas, the group mixes terrorism with charity. This clever organizational apparatus tends to confuse weaker willed people as to whether the group is good or evil. In case you had to guess, I think the group is evil. As such, “experts” on the Muslim Brotherhood have concluded that it is so influential that the United States would have no choice but to accept the group’s role.

I disagree with this assessment. The United States can still influence Egyptian behavior by threatening to withdraw the billions of dollars in aid it grants the country each year if the Muslim Brotherhood assumes power. USAID, alone has provided Egypt with nearly $28.6 billion since 1975.

That said, Egyptian unrest is the least of America’s concerns. It is where that unrest spreads that has far more ominous implications.

Stay tuned for Part II tomorrow to learn where Egypt’s unrest may ultimately lead.

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46th Carnival of Divided Government is Up!

Divided We Stand United We Fall is hosting the 46th Carnival of Divided Government and features my blog post on “Think You Can Make Money Investing When Your Party is in Power? Guess Again” on making investment decisions based on which party is in power.

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Reflections of a Rational Republican Passes 1,000-Page Views

Yesterday, Reflections of a Rational Republican passed its first important milestone: 1,000 page views since launching on January 1, 2011!

However, this number pales in comparison to top blogging sites like TechCrunch and The Huffington Post. TechCrunch currently gets 9.2 million unique visitors and 30 million page views per month. The Huffington Post currently has 15.5 million page views per month according to Quantcast.

That said, everyone has to start somewhere and the journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

Shameless self-promotional moment over. This blog now returns to its regularly scheduled programming.

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We Do Big Things: Rational Republican Reaction to 2011 State of the Union

Overall, I think Obama’s State of the Union was a success. While it had its own unique problems, it seemed like a genuine attempt to bring the nation together and focus on solving issues in a bipartisan manner. As always, the devil is in the details and in future weeks, action will speak louder than words.

The Good

Solid Delivery

As usual, President Obama was articulate, inspiring, and grand. A showman – par excellence. In particular, he reminds us of what it means to be an American:

“America still has the largest, most prosperous economy in the world. No workers are more productive than ours. No country has more successful companies, or grants more patents to inventors and entrepreneurs. We are home to the world’s best colleges and universities, where more students come to study than any other place on Earth.”

His reference to Speaker Boehner’s humble background was also very touching:

“That dream is why someone who began by sweeping the floors of his father’s Cincinnati bar can preside as Speaker of the House in the greatest nation on Earth.”

However, those who know me well, know that this aspect of a leader counts for nothing in my book. What matters most are results and a logical plan of action.

Acknowledging the Job Gap

President Obama forthrightly acknowledges the central problem facing Americans today: jobs. He emotes with Americans’ frustrations with job growth by admitting that the old world in which those without college degrees could easily get jobs has changed and that “for many, the change has been painful.”

Call to Action on Clean Energy

In my opinion, this seems to be Obama’s strongest substantive part of his speech. His call for Americans to use the clean energy technology race as a “Sputnik moment,” is a position I have taken in a prior blog (see “Rebuke of Republican Rejection of Renewables Not Far Off the Mark“). In fact, I have used the exact same language to characterize the challenge.

Politically, linking the American jobs crisis with a call for fashioning a new industry is a brilliant one. I also think it is the right one. While spurring development of a clean energy industry will unlikely solve the near-term jobs crisis, it will certainly be an area of future jobs growth in this country. It will also be necessary to innovate America’s way out of its high dependence on foreign oil. Finally, a national focus on the energy problem will be a source of future American innovation. This is critically important as America’s ability to innovate is one of the only sustainable advantages our country possesses with respect to the Chinese.

I also think his recommendation that he pay for innovation in clean energy by “asking Congress to eliminate the billions in taxpayer dollars we currently give to oil companies” is a good one. I think the Exxon’s of the world can probably live without them given the high levels of profitability in the oil and gas industry.

Lastly, the President’s call for 80% of America’s electricity to come from clean energy sources is an audacious one. What is even more effective is his rational admission that the country can achieve this goal not only with wind and solar, but also with nuclear and clean coal. His advocacy for a broader and more comprehensive energy solution is critical to get buy-in from both the left and the right.

This is the first time I have ever heard someone on the right or left propose a reasonable way to reach such an objective. Bravo, President Obama!

Education is a Parent’s Responsibility No Less Than it is a School’s

Most politicians forget that education is a joint venture between parents and schools. They tend only to blame schools. Obama quite rightly calls out one major part of the problem: parents’ abdication of their educational responsibilities.

“That responsibility begins not in our classrooms, but in our homes and communities. It’s family that first instills the love of learning in a child. Only parents can make sure the TV is turned off and homework gets done. We need to teach our kids that it’s not just the winner of the Super Bowl who deserves to be celebrated, but the winner of the science fair; that success is not a function of fame or PR, but of hard work and discipline.”

Putting out this fact is the first step in reforming this country’s failing educational system.

Presidential Pledges to Improve America’s Business Climate

President Obama’s pledge for a regulatory review to reduce barriers to business is a positive sign that he is committed to improving the business climate in the United States. The President’s commitment to double America’s exports by 2014 was also a key positive, especially since his recent trade agreements with China, India, and South Korea are already showing progress in that direction. His call to simplify the tax code and to freeze discretionary spending are also a welcome proposals.

The Bad

Some Bad Clean Energy Policies Portrayed as Successes

In reference to his clean energy policy, President Obama suggests that: “We’re not just handing out money. We’re issuing a challenge.” I don’t mean to take the wind out of his sails, but in some cases giving out handouts is exactly what the government is doing.

For instance, his reference to the the California Institute of Technology’s program to develop “a way to turn sunlight and water into fuel for our cars” is the very example of a government boondoggle.

The intent of the project is a good one. It is funding basic scientific research. The government should allocate its dollars to fund basic scientific research on technologies that do not exist. The problem in this specific case is that the government is funding an organization to develop a technology that has already existed for over fifteen years. While JCAP is spending 122 million dollars over five years to discover a process that a Princeton scientist discovered in 1994, Liquid Light, a venture-backed start-up, is working on making it commercially viable. Is this really the most efficient use of taxpayer dollars?

Here’s another example. Certain portions of the government’s federal loan guarantee program for clean energy have misaligned incentives. The primary problem with the federal loan guarantee process is that government bureaucrats choose the winning companies rather than letting the free market sort things out. At the outset, one could argue that there is an adverse selection problem in the process, because the companies that do not need government financing are also likely to be the healthiest and most competitive companies. A larger percentage of the companies, therefore, that apply for financing are also more likely to be less competitive. There are also significant conflicts of interest in this process. For instance, companies may win grants and loan guarantees based on the location of their plants whether or not those plants are located in areas of the country where the costs are cheapest or there is an abundance of engineering and scientific talent. There is also more risk that a sitting administration will favor companies that benefit its political loyalties the most. For instance, unions are making a killing from the federal loan guarantee program.

As of December 6, 2010, the federal government awarded a total of 8.3 billion dollars to five separate companies in nineteen different projects that created or saved 38,700 jobs as part of its Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing (AVTM) Loan Program. The program provides loans to automobile and automobile components manufacturers to reequip, expand, or build manufacturing facilities in the United States that will produce advanced technology vehicles or components.

Two of the recipients of this government largesse are Tesla Motors and Fisker Automotive, two innovative Silicon Valley startups. However, nearly ninety percent of these funds went to support hidebound industrial corporations like Ford and Nissan North America that have a large number of union mouths to feed. Both companies also stand to benefit from 34,700 out of the 38,700 jobs that this program saved or created.

I do not think propping up unions is what the American people had in mind when they voted for the President and his pledge for a green technology revolution. This is classic cronyism at its best and not an effective solution for spearheading American energy independence.

President’s Agenda Seems Too Broad, Expensive, and Expansive

The President’s speech was ambitious. I worry that much of what he wants to do will be unaffordable. His agenda is too broad. He needs to pick an area and focus on it. I think that area should be clean energy. However, he wants to invest in schools, innovate in clean energy, build crumbling infrastructure, subsidize healthcare, among other things. This broad agenda is simply too much.

The Ugly

Governance Will Now be a Shared Responsibility Between Parties

One particular line that seemed to betray the President’s claims of being a “post-partisan” President was:

“With their votes, the American people determined that governing will now be a shared responsibility between parties.”

Whoops. Since when wasn’t there shared responsibility between parties? I know that until recently Democrats controlled both the legislative and executive branches of government, but there were still Republicans working in both Houses of Congress at the time.

This particular comment made me feel uncomfortable. It felt like Obama was, despite the silly wayward ways of the ignorant plebeians, reassuring his children that he would “share” power only because of their vote, not because of their wisdom.

The President probably did not intend this phrase to have this effect, yet it seems to display a thinly-veiled condescension toward the average American that seethes beneath the surface.

This little gem also implies that before the last election, governing was not a shared responsibility, which seems to fly in the face of Obama’s past “post-partisan” rhetoric six years ago:

Well, I say to them tonight, there’s not a liberal America and a conservative America; there’s the United States of America. There’s not a black America and white America and Latino America and Asian America; there’s the United States of America.

Overall, the speech was a strong one, despite some of these occasional warts. I just hope he lives up to many of his words, especially, “We do big things.”

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Parting with Olbermann Not Partisan, Just Stone Stupid

In my professional opinion, letting Keith Olbermann go is arguably the dumbest business decision a media firm has made in the last twelve months. Like NPR’s firing of Juan Williams last year, this decision seems emotionally charged and personal. The only logical explanation I can come up with is that someone at MSNBC or Comcast recently had a frontal lobotomy.

Don’t get me wrong. As a conservative, I find Keith Olbermann’s commentary bitterly partisan, annoying, strident, irritating, and one-sided. He is the ultimate anti-O’Reilly. But that is his job. MSNBC was not paying him to deliver unbiased news.  It was paying him to comment on the news in his own unique way. Anyone with a brain knows that Olbermann’s views exhibited a pointed leftest slant. That’s why they tuned into his program night after night. He was an entertainer and that is what entertainers do. They deliver ratings.

And boy did Olbermann deliver ratings. Starting with a couple hundred thousand viewers in 2003, his show’s viewership grew more than 50% from 2006 to 2007 to 726,000, and ultimately expanded to a steady and loyal base of over one million viewers a night. His efforts single-handedly brought MSNBC to the number two position behind Fox News.

Olbermann is the modern equivalent of the goose that laid MSNBC’s golden eggs.

Although Olbermann is not permitted to speak about his departure as part of the conditions of his severance, management’s rationale is slowing leaking into the press. At no point have I ever seen any legitimate business case for letting the man go.

If his ratings were declining and his show was losing market share, I could understand letting him go. Or if authorities found a kiddie porn dungeon in his basement, then getting rid of him would also obviously be a sound strategy to protect MSNBC’s brand.

So what horrible offense did Olbermann commit to deserve MSNBC’s self-immolating act of parting ways with its single-most productive media asset?

He was not nice.

According to the New York Times, Olbermann had “a distinctive and outspoken voice and a mercurial personality with a track record of attacking his superiors and making early exits.” His boss, Phil Griffin has noted, “It was, like, you meet a guy and fall in love with him…then you commit yourself to him, and he turns out to be a jerk and difficult and brutal.”

News flash, Phil: You are running a network, not a dating service. Get over it. I hope you come to realize that you probably just made the worst business decision in your career, if not in network history. I am really sorry that your feelings were hurt. I cannot wait to see how you feel when your job is eliminated.

This kind of emotional decision-making and politicking happens to varying degrees in every organization. It, unfortunately, is unavoidable. What makes it particularly egregious in this case is that Olbermann’s performance was about as close to black and white as it gets. Keeping Olbermann at the network is not just about keeping MSNBC’s network profitable, it is about MSNBC’s survival.

Yet management chose to kill its golden goose. Good luck with that, MSNBC.

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Predictions 2011: How Are They Currently Trending?

On January 1, I made some predictions about different events in 2011. I thought it would be interesting to track how some of these predictions are currently trending to measure both my and my readers’ accuracy. I have only commented on those events for which there has been recent news.

Finance and Economics
1. I suggested that the S&P500 would end the year up 15% at 1,446 and the plurality of my readers (~45%) agreed with my assessment. As of yesterday, the S&P500 was up 1.8% year-to-date and stood at 1,280. If the S&P500 were to grow at the same compounded rate of growth for the remaining 345 days of 2011, it would end the year up by over 38%. It is unlikely this will be the case. However, it does seem that 15% growth for the S&P500 is still well within reach.

2. I also predicted that unemployment would experience a “modest” decline ending the year at just under 8%. Again, the plurality of my readers agreed with 50% of them voting that unemployment would be 8-8.9% by the end of 2011. It looks like unemployment will be more likely to end at the top end rather than the lower end of this range. The last official numbers pointed to 9.4% in December, so my “modest” prediction actually seems rather aggressive.

3. I also predicted that oil would end the year at $110 per barrel, but only 22% of my readers agreed. So far, the West Texas Intermediate spot price actually declined from $91.38 per barrel on December 31, 2010 to $90.85 per barrel on January 19, 2011. However, it is still probably too early to tell where it will end up by the end of this year.

Geopolitical Developments
5. I suggested that President Obama would appoint Hillary Clinton as the 23rd Secretary of Defense. Nearly 89% of my readers disagreed and recent news suggests that they may have had better foresight than I. In a recent interview, Clinton indicated that she would likely leave her position as Secretary of State in 2012 and was “looking forward to retuning to private life.

8. Earlier this month, I predicted that Hezbollah militants would clash with Israel forces on the Lebanese border some time this year. Nearly 56% of my readers agreed. This past Tuesday, Hezbollah operatives gathered in groups of up to 30 at a dozen strategic points in the Lebanese capital in “coup drills” to protest a tribunal’s investigation into the bombing that killed Rafik Hariri. Presumably, the terrorist group wants to close the investigation, because it is responsible for Hariri’s death. Should the Lebanese government collapse over this mess, I think it will not be long before the Israelis get involved in the affairs of their northern neighbor.

9. So far, all early tallies indicate that southern Sudanese voters have overwhelmingly chosen to secede from northern Sudan with 98.6% voting for the split. I predicted that the South would vote for succession and every reader who participated in my poll agreed. To be fair, this prediction was the easiest one. After all, who wants to be part of an Islamic regime guilty of ethnic cleansing in Darfur?

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Rebuke of Republican Rejection of Renewables Not Far Off the Mark

Today, the New York Times published a Room for Debate series of columns on “Can the U.S. Compete With China on Green Tech?”. I wanted to focus in particular on David Roberts’ column, “Understanding the Objective“, which decries the Republican failure to support clean energy policies.

As a Republican, David’s argument felt like a slap in the face. The problem is that he is right that “Republican officeholders do not believe that boosting America’s clean energy industries is a worthy goal.” The fundamental problem is that there are few conservatives who know much about the costs and benefits of clean energy policy. Instead of debating the merits or pitfalls of the left’s clean energy and climate change mitigation policies, the right has reflexively opposed them all.

As I see it, there are two problems today in conservative thought on clean energy. The first is that the right has not framed the issue in a manner that rallies its political base to support a transition from a fossil-fuel-based economy to a green one. For the left, much support for clean energy comes from a desire to reduce harm to the environment. This is certainly a worthy goal, but it will win few supporters on the right when balanced against economic growth.

To win clean energy advocates on the right, the way is simple: This is about America’s survival.

The clock is ticking. At 2009 production rates, the United States and China will each consume its domestic oil reserves within eleven years. Oil represents thirty-nine percent of American and nineteen percent of Chinese energy consumption and most of this oil fuels both countries’ transportation systems. A significant supply disruption could literally shut both economies down.

Over the past two decades, China has become an economic dynamo and its explosive growth has been breathtaking. In 1990, thirty-three Chinese cities had more than one million inhabitants. In 2010, there were eighty-eight. To fuel this growth, China’s demand for natural resources has been rapacious. It accounted for forty-six percent of worldwide coal consumption in 2009, and it devours similar shares of aluminum and zinc. In the same year, it used two times as much crude steel as the United States, European Union, and Japan combined and purchased more automobiles than the United States. In 2010, Chinese consumers are estimated to have purchased more mobile phones than all other countries combined. The IMF estimates that China will account for between twenty and twenty-five percent of global growth in 2010.

China’s rapid growth and its voracious appetite for global resources are fueled by demographics, particularly the growth of industrial cities and the rise of a middle class. As the standard of living of over one billion people improves and more Chinese move to cities, the demand for an increasing global share of natural resources is an inevitable certainty. China will need more steel to build cars whose increasing numbers will demand more fuel to operate. More important, it is a Chinese national security imperative to provide enough jobs to an increasingly urban population to ensure stable employment and to offset the potentially destabilizing effects of China’s now-defunct one-child policy. Chinese President Hu Jintao has remarked that his most pressing concern is creating twenty-five million jobs a year for Chinese citizens.

These demographic shifts will further exacerbate major gender imbalances, which are due primarily to female abortion or infanticide in countries like China and India. By 2030, China will have 31.5 million more males than females between the ages of fifteen and forty-nine. With such a large number of single males, China could likely experience significant internal unrest and instability over the coming decade.

Today, China’s economy is humming at a 9.6 percent GDP growth rate and unemployment is at 4.1 percent. This growth rate dwarfs the United States’ post-recession GDP growth of two to three percent. If China’s growth rate sputters, as it inevitably will, its unemployment rate could rise precipitously and the effects would ripple far beyond its borders. Any rise in unemployment could increase instability. China already experiences over 100,000 protests annually. One way for China’s communist leaders to diffuse this internal tension might be to focus it outward toward external enemies.

The potential collision course that the United States and China are on has not been lost on China’s strategic planners. Over the past two decades, China has been quietly preparing for the possibility of a major clash with the United States in two ways, which are linked directly to its ability to access and secure energy resources. China has been steadily building its “blue water” fleet, presumably to provide it with the ability to project its navy far beyond its shores. Such capability is especially important given China’s need to protect supply lines to energy resources in the Persian Gulf and Africa. China has also been extremely active in Africa over the past decade in securing development contracts, selling arms, and providing foreign aid. Chinese leaders are not taking these actions deliberately to undermine American national security. They are taking them to enhance theirs. China is behaving as any rational geopolitical actor looking out for its vital interests should in a modern mercantilist age.

As China continues its rapid economic growth, the demand for fossil fuels will continue to intensify. As prices continue to rise, the transportation infrastructure upon which the American economy is based will make it increasingly difficult to transport goods to and from international markets. War will be more likely and America will increasingly become beholden to the resource nationalism and weapons of mass disruption of corrupt energy-rich regimes. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq and others of America’s top fifteen oil suppliers will increasingly have a vote on American affairs.

The second problem with conservative thought on clean energy and climate change is that no one on the right has advocated serious alternative solutions to the left’s policies. Now the only option is to choose between the left’s policies or the far left’s. It is no wonder that the right’s default action has been to steadfastly oppose them both. This is not acceptable and the right has thus far abdicated its responsibility on generating viable and necessary alternatives.

When Republicans argue for blocking carbon taxes, they rarely advocate alternatives like cap-and-trade or geoengineering. Many simply deny, against all apparent evidence from NASA’s satellites, that global warming is occurring. And this is even before any debate can begin about whether global warming is due to human activity.

This should be our generation’s Sputnik moment, in which both the right and left rise to the technological challenge of transforming our energy infrastructure to preserve American energy independence.

The right needs a better fact-based approach to both clean energy and climate change. Otherwise, the left will control future policy. And Republicans like me, would deserve the consequences — good or ill.

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A Call to Service Solution to Partisan Divide

On Monday, Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff lamented that “America doesn’t know its military and the United States military doesn’t know America.” I could not agree with him more.

Less than one percent of Americans currently serve in the military. Based on Department of Veterans Affairs and Census projections, military veterans represented just over seven percent of the population in September 2010. Yet, according to the National Coalition for Homeless Veterans, veterans represent one out of every five homeless people. America has turned its back on its veterans whether it is intentional or not.

Rather than seeing them as a national asset, the government treats veterans as a potential threat. Two years ago, the Department of Homeland Security published its belief that many of them posed risks to American security – the same group of people who have so selflessly dedicated their lives to protecting American interests around the globe. The report argued, “Returning veterans possess combat skills and experience that are attractive to rightwing extremists.” Yet the report started with the warning that the “DHS/Office of Intelligence and Analysis (I&A) has no specific information that domestic rightwing terrorists are currently planning acts of violence, but rightwing extremists may be gaining new recruits by playing on their fears about several emergent issues.” Yet, the agency chose to spend valuable organizational resources to generate an entire report on the topic.

To be fair, veterans do receive hiring preferences for certain government jobs and benefit from government contracting guidelines that often favor veteran-owned businesses. However, unless a veteran plans for lifetime government service or starts an aerospace or defense business, he or she does not benefit from these programs.

The American public’s disconnectedness from the military has not always been the case. In Defense Secretary Gates’ September speech at Duke University, he remarked,

“A prominent military historian once noted that of his roughly 750 classmates in the Princeton University class of 1956, more than 400 went on to some form of military service – a group that included a future Harvard President, a governor of Delaware, and Pulitzer Prize winning reporter for the New York Times. That same year, more than 1,000 cadets were trained by Stanford University’s ROTC program.”

By the time I was an undergraduate at Stanford in mid-90s, the University had long ago banned the ROTC program from campus. Initially, the excuse was opposition to the Vietnam War and later it was because of the military’s “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell” policy. When I graduated at Stanford in 1998, fewer than five Stanford cadets participated in Santa Clara’s ROTC program. To fund my education at Stanford, I commuted 45 minutes each way to Santa Clara University three times a week at five in the morning after working all night on engineering problem sets. My minor inconvenience pales in comparison to those currently serving multiple tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, who are separated from their families and whose lives are constantly in mortal danger. Some of my friends have never returned.

The lack of American participation in military service coincided with the decision to transition from a military draft to an all-volunteer force in the 1970s. While the all-volunteer program has resulted in the most powerful and effective military in history, the downside of the program is that fewer Americans serve and a disproportionate number of them come from working class backgrounds. As such, the country’s elites are increasingly disconnected from the military that keeps the country safe at night.

A positive aspect of the military draft was that it forced people of all backgrounds to work together. Liberals and conservatives, rural farmhands and the scions of the elite, Jews and Christians, and blacks and whites, all found a common purpose in service to our country. Today, society has become increasingly factionalized with like-minded people retreating into their own tribes, which reinforce their own deeply held views. Television and radio networks feed these biases by catering to partisan desires in the pursuit of profit.

The solution is not to bring back a military draft. Such a move is impractical – the military simply cannot absorb that many personnel overnight. However, there is something to be said for a national service program for adults, in which they spend two years in the military, Peace Corps, State Department, a public safety organization, or as a teacher, serving the country in causes greater than themselves. Adults could have the option to do this service at any point in their careers. While the program would not be mandatory, until someone performs their service, they would be ineligible for any tax exemptions, credits, or deductions whatsoever. Therefore, the program would remain voluntary, but provide strong incentives for Americans to participate. It would also benefit government from the experiences of more seasoned professionals.

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Prudent Protectionism for American Exceptionalism

Greentechmedia published an interesting article yesterday (see “DOD Must Buy American-Made, Not Chinese, Solar Panels”) bemoaning the Buy American provision of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2011 for solar panels used on U.S. military installations.

While I am generally not a fan of protectionism, I think there should be an exception for  high technology products used in national security applications. The purpose of the Buy America provision in this particular instance is to ensure that no foreign components are in military systems, which foreign intelligence agencies could rig to fail in combat or bug to monitor American military operations. This makes the Pentagon’s procurement process arduous for most companies and is why many of the weapons platforms the DOD purchases are so expensive. Furthermore, the more electronic components a system has, the more a foreign power can manipulate it.

Other countries have accused U.S. spy agencies of rigging American-made products with listening devices. For instance, there were allegations in 2002 that the American government bugged a Boeing 767, which was to serve as President Jiang Zemin’s official aircraft. Chinese officials reported that pilots discovered more than 20 sophisticated satellite-operated bugging devices, hidden in the aircraft’s upholstery, after hearing a strange whining noise during flight operations.

Imagine a scenario in which the Chinese launch a cyber attack on the U.S. grid. One aspect of that attack could be to shut down power delivery to American military installations. One possible way for the Chinese to achieve this goal, if they planned the attack well in advance, would be to trigger a shut down of all Chinese solar systems at military bases using pre-wired logic bombs embedded in the systems’ circuitry. It sounds outlandish, but the CIA did something similar to the Soviets during the Cold War.

During the 1970s, Soviet intelligence launched a comprehensive espionage campaign to obtain Western technical and scientific knowledge. When the CIA discovered the extent of this intelligence program, with President Reagan’s encouragement, the agency decided to turn the tables on the Soviets. Using the KGB’s wish list of technologies, which a Soviet defector had provided the French, the CIA and FBI worked together to modify them to malfunction and to get them clandestinely into Soviet collection channels. They seeded Soviet military equipment with rigged microchips, provided defective turbines for gas pipelines, and transferred bogus plans designed to disrupt operations in chemical plants and a tractor factory.

When the KGB dispatched an operative to steal pipeline control software from a Canadian firm, the CIA infected the code with a Trojan horse designed to make the pumps, turbines, and valves malfunction by generating pressures beyond the systems’ design tolerances as part of an operation known as “the Farewell dossier.” The resulting explosion on the Trans-Siberian pipeline registered at three kilotons and was the largest non-nuclear explosion ever observed from space. It was so large that NORAD initially believed it was the onset of a Soviet nuclear attack.

So, as this little history lesson shows, there is a legitimate reason why the DOD mandates that certain products come from only American sources.

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