Last year, I started this blog with my top 10 predictions for 2011. I also polled readers on these same predictions. At the end of the year, my accuracy rate was 40%, while my readers were right 50% of the time.
This year, I aim to do better. So, without further ado, here are my predictions for 2012:
Finance and Economics
1. Plagued by continued macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical instability, continued political gridlock in Washington exacerbated by an election, a continuing credit crisis in Europe, and the threat of a burgeoning credit crisis in China, the S&P 500 ends the year down 10% at 1,132.
2. Unemployment ends the year at above 8%.
3. Oil ends the year at above $125 per barrel because of increased geopolitical instability.
4. The United States and/or Israel conducts a strategic bombing campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
5. Kim Jong-Un turns out to be as uncooperative as his father or worse, making prospects for détente on the Korean Peninsula worse than they were in 2011.
6. Iraq erupts into civil war.
7. The Republicans choose Mitt Romney as their presidential nominee.
8. The American people re-elect President Obama.
9. The Republicans lose seats in both the House and Senate.
10. Representative Nancy Pelosi retires.
I look forward to seeing everyone’s predictions!