Two years ago, I started this blog with my top 10 predictions for 2011. I also polled readers on these same predictions. At the end of the year, my accuracy rate was 40%, while my readers were right 50% of the time. I continued the tradition with my top 10 predictions for 2012. At year end, both my and my readers accuracy rate was 40%.
Without further ado, my predictions for 2013 are listed below:
Finance and Economics
1. With U.S. election uncertainty in the rear view mirror, more certainty regarding tax policy, the U.S. entering a recovery after a credit-driven recession and economic slowdown, and continued loose monetary policy, the S&P 500 ends the year up over 10%.
2. Unemployment ends the year at or above 7%.
3. Oil ends the year at above $110 per barrel, primarily because of increased economic growth coupled with continuing geopolitical uncertainty regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
4. The United States and/or Israel conducts a strategic bombing campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
5. Despite tough talk by the United Nations, the Syrian Uprising continues.
6. The China-Japan dispute over the Senkaku Islands escalates in 2013.
7. Congress proposes, but fails to pass, an assault weapons ban.
8. President Obama chooses Dr. Ashton Carter as the twenty-fourth Secretary of Defense.
9. The Senate swiftly confirms Senator Kerry as Secretary of State.
10. A Democrat picks up Kerry’s Senate seat in a 2013 special election.
I look forward to seeing everyone’s predictions!
I realize of course that some of my votes are more wishful thinking than feelings of absolute certainty. There is very little that any of us can predict with absolute certainty.
I agree. After all, I’ve only been right 40% of the time over the last two years.
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