Top 10 Predictions for 2013

Two years ago, I started this blog with my top 10 predictions for 2011. I also polled readers on these same predictions. At the end of the year, my accuracy rate was 40%, while my readers were right 50% of the time. I continued the tradition with my top 10 predictions for 2012. At year end, both my and my readers accuracy rate was 40%.

Without further ado, my predictions for 2013 are listed below:

Finance and Economics

1. With U.S. election uncertainty in the rear view mirror, more certainty regarding tax policy, the U.S. entering a recovery after a credit-driven recession and economic slowdown, and continued loose monetary policy, the S&P 500 ends the year up over 10%.

2. Unemployment ends the year at or above 7%.

3. Oil ends the year at above $110 per barrel, primarily because of increased economic growth coupled with continuing geopolitical uncertainty regarding Iran’s nuclear program.


4. The United States and/or Israel conducts a strategic bombing campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

5. Despite tough talk by the United Nations, the Syrian Uprising continues.

6. The China-Japan dispute over the Senkaku Islands escalates in 2013.

Domestic Politics

7. Congress proposes, but fails to pass, an assault weapons ban.

8. President Obama chooses Dr. Ashton Carter as the twenty-fourth Secretary of Defense.

9. The Senate swiftly confirms Senator Kerry as Secretary of State.

10. A Democrat picks up Kerry’s Senate seat in a 2013 special election.

I look forward to seeing everyone’s predictions!

About Sean Patrick Hazlett

Finance executive, engineer, former military officer, and science fiction and horror writer. Editor of the Weird World War III anthology.
This entry was posted in Business, Central Asia, China, Defense, Energy Security, Finance and Economics, International Security, Investing, Leadership, Media, Middle East, Nuclear Power, Nuclear proliferation, Peak Oil, Policy, Politics, Predictions, Taxes, War and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

3 Responses to Top 10 Predictions for 2013

  1. lbwoodgate says:

    I realize of course that some of my votes are more wishful thinking than feelings of absolute certainty. There is very little that any of us can predict with absolute certainty.

  2. Pingback: Top 10 Predictions for 2013: Results | Reflections of a Rational Republican

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