ROARR’s Guiding Principles (Part I): Data-Driven Decision-Making Produces Pragmatic Public Policy

Since starting this blog almost ten months ago, I intended to post this site’s guiding principles. Yet ten months into this experiment, I still haven’t done so. So without further ado, here is the first of seven principles that embody the philosophies underlying Reflections of a Rational Republican.

Data-Driven Decision-Making Produces Pragmatic Public Policy

One of the fundamental reasons our government is broken is that the political selection process favors ideological warriors over pragmatic problem solvers. For instance, each party’s primary process rewards candidates who toe the party line, and punishes those who sometimes favor practical solutions over partisan mandates.

Another major problem with our political system is that it is dominated by lawyers. According to Fox News, 203 of the 541 members of Congress are attorneys, and 218 have JD degrees. In other words, 40% of Congress has legal training, and 39% have practiced law at some point in their careers versus 0.3% in the overall U.S. population.

The problem with legal training is that it is focused on advocacy. Lawyers are imbued with a sense that they must provide their clients with the strongest possible defense. As such, they focus ruthlessly on the strengths of their clients’ cases, while downplaying the weaknesses. The American legal system is by nature highly adversarial. As a consequence, lawyers have a tendency to focus on winning their arguments rather than problem-solving.

In contrast, most first-time members of China’s political leadership were not lawyers, but engineers and administrators. In China’s 17th Politburo, 76% of members had experience as provincial leaders. Until several years ago, all nine members of the Politburo’s Standing Committee were engineers by training.

The contrast between the two countries today could not be clearer. The Chinese government has focused on problem-solving. After all, the pressure to create over 24 million jobs a year to stave off social instability is a very real motivator. The country’s economy continues to grow at well above 8% a year, and, as of October 29, 2011,  it has accumulated massive foreign exchange reserves of $3.2 trillion. In contrast, the United States continues to be mired in partisan political bickering that nearly triggered a default on its federal debt in August 2011. It is then no surprise that America’s economic growth is expected to remain below 2% for the foreseeable future.

The only way to reconcile political differences is to find common ground. The easiest way to do that is to use data to drive decision-making. I believe that people generally fall into four buckets. They are either liberal or conservative, and they favor either ideology or data in policy developement. I believe every sound government should have some ideologically driven leaders from both political parties to inspire us. That said, I believe the government that governs best is one populated predominantly by data-driven decision-makers. For these individuals, ideology is important, but data is supreme. The problem today is that America’s government is dominated by data-fudging ideologues who care more for party than for problem-solving.

Source: ©2011 Reflections of a Rational Republican

The figure above provides a useful framework to illustrate this problem, and is the primary reason I created this site. I call the funnel in the chart, the “Funnel of Futility.” The more ideological a decision-maker is, the wider the gap between him and his ideologically equivalent counterpart. As ideology becomes increasingly important in one’s decision-making process, the more futile working with an ideological opposite becomes. In contrast, as more data-intensive decision-makers interact, the partisan gap narrows, and government becomes more useful and efficient.

As such, the purpose of this site is to confront the facts, create a dialogue centered around data, and engage in problem-solving rather than political bickering.

Posted in Blogging, Business, Clean Energy, Clean Tech, Climate Change, Defense, Education, Energy Security, Finance and Economics, Food Security, Healthcare, International Security, Leadership, Mathematics, Media, Peak Oil, Policy, Politics, Socialism, Taxes, Technology, Writing | Tagged , , , | 12 Comments

How Will Occupy Wall Street End?

Commentators have engaged in a great deal of speculation about how they believe the Occupy Wall Street movement will evolve over time. Will it end violently like it did in Oakland? Will it become an enduring movement that forever changes America’s political landscape; or will it ultimately fade away into the dustbin of history?

I created the following poll with what I believe are several possible scenarios. I think several of them are highly likely, while I consider the remainder to be extremely improbable.

What say you?

Posted in California, Finance and Economics, Media, Policy, Politics, Predictions, Socialism, Taxes | Tagged , , , , , | 17 Comments

Americans Distrust Government, Disapprove of Congress

A recent New York Times/CBS News poll shows that 89 percent of Americans surveyed distrust government to do the right thing, and that 84 percent disapprove of Congress. Interestingly, only 46 percent disapprove of President Obama’s job performance, a potential wedge that the Democratic Party is likely to exploit in the upcoming presidential election. The poll’s results are a warning to the far right fringe that crazy is no longer a viable strategy.

Additionally, Democratic class warfare tactics appear to be working extremely well. 70% of respondents agreed with the assertion that Congressional Republican policies favor the rich. Roughly two-thirds also objected to tax cuts for corporations, even though America’s corporate tax rate is among the highest in the world. Another two-thirds favored the government increasing income taxes on millionaires.

The poll also showed the majority of respondents have fallen for the Democratic Party’s patently false assertion that Republicans have made no effort to pass jobs legislation. Seventy-one percent of respondents believe that Congressional Republicans do not have a clear plan for creating jobs; this is despite the fact that the House has passed 15 bills, all of which  are currently languishing in the Senate.

However, the poll also uncovered some more alarming findings — namely that two-thirds of those polled believe that wealth should be distributed “more evenly in this country”. This finding begs the question of whom they think should be in charge of this redistribution, particularly since so many of them distrust the government.

These poll findings showed sharp ideological divisions, with 90% of Democrats, two-thirds of independents, and just over one-third of Republicans agreeing that the distribution of wealth in the United States should be more balanced.

Expect America’s cognitive dissonance to increase as we head into the next election.

Posted in Business, Media, Policy, Politics, Socialism, Taxes, Unions | Tagged , , , , , , | 11 Comments

Political Orientation Poll

It’s been nearly ten months since I started this blog, and I wanted to get a sense for what type of audience I have. My hypothesis is that most readers are in the moderate range (both liberal and conservative), but I will never know unless I poll my audience.

Without further ado, here is the official poll. I appreciate your help in advance.

Posted in Blogging, Business, Politics | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Cost per Job in DOE’s Loan Program Qualifies for One-Percent Status

As of today, October 22, 2011, the cost per job created (or saved) from the Department of Energy’s Federal Loan Guarantee Program is $554,217.61 (i.e., $35.9B in federal loan guarantees divided by 64,776 jobs). The most famous of these loan guarantees was the half-a-billion-dollar one for Solyndra, which ended with the loss of 1,100 jobs. Interestingly, that particular investment is no longer listed on the DOE’s website.

The Wall Street Journal has recently reported that a household making more than $506,000 of income per year is in the top “one-percent” of income in the United States. In essence, the average sum the government spent to create each green job exceeded the amount of money that would put an American household in the top 1% of income earners.

The only difference here is that the government actually did take this money from the American people, which is all the more reason Occupy Wall Street protestors should be occupying Washington and not Wall Street.

Posted in Business, California, Clean Energy, Clean Tech, Energy Security, Finance and Economics, Media, Policy, Politics, Taxes | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments

Occupy Wall Street Theme Song

My precocious 9-year old daughter came up with the idea for this song sung to the tune of the Fraggle Rock theme song. Then, my wife and I ran with it. Enjoy!

Protest your cares away
Work is for some other slave
Taxes we don’t pay
In the USA

Corporations go away
We don’t like you anyway
But iPhones are OK
Hip, hip, hooray

The one percent must pay
Bankers must be locked away
Pound of flesh, we flay
In their chalet

Do what we say
Like Cornel West and Kanye
They love their chardonnay
They’re so soigne

Until winter we will stay
When its cold, it’s not OK
Where’s my free latte
In the USA

In the park, we’ll lay
Even though it’s a cliché
New York shall pay
To keep us at bay

Unions join the fray
It’s our way or the highway
Dressed for May Day
Marx we obey

No plan to relay
We might get there someday
Til then we will stay
Blocking your pathway

Protest your cares away
Showers for another day
Let the bongos play
In the USA

Posted in Business, Humor, Media, Music, Policy, Politics, Socialism, Texas, Unions | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Who Are the One Percent?

As the Occupiers are busy sharpening their pitchforks for their next reenactment of Children of the Corn, I thought it might be instructive to share a nice little tool from the Wall Street Journal. The tool allows you to enter your household income into a field, and then calculates your percentile compared to other American households.

Enjoy the tool, just don’t let anyone know if your rank is 99%.

Posted in Blogging, Business, Finance and Economics, Humor, Media, Politics, Socialism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 15 Comments

Who Are the Occupiers?

Aaron Rutkoff at the Wall Street Journal published an article yesterday summarizing a scientific poll of the protestors. The results are relatively unsurprising as they reveal that the plurality of the protestors are young and supportive of left-wing causes. They are also disproportionately un- or under- employed.

Here are some highlights from the survey:

  • 49% of the protestors are under 30
  • One-third identify themselves as Democrats
  • One-third don’t identify with any party
  • Not a single respondent identified herself as a Republican
  • 33% are either un- or under- employed vs. 16.5% in the overall U.S. population as defined by the U-6 measure of unemployment
  • Of the 56% of protestors who voted in 2008, 74% voted for President Obama
  • More than three-quarters support increasing taxes on the wealthiest Americans, but only 42% support increasing them on all Americans
  • A plurality (44%) hope to influence the Democratic Party the way the Tea Party has influenced the Republican Party, or to engage and mobilize progressives

Based on these statistics, it is clear that the movement does not speak for 99% of Americans. Rather it appears to be the vanguard of the post-Obama progressive populist people’s politburo.

Move along. There’s nothing more to see here.

Posted in Blogging, Business, Finance and Economics, Humor, Media, Politics, Socialism | Tagged , , , , , , | 26 Comments

“Real World”: Tea Party?

Well, no, actually. That would be calling attention to a conservative movement, and MTV likely wouldn’t want to have any part in legitimizing that.

But if you support what appears to be an anarcho-Marxist movement that still has no concrete platform, and is “hanging” out in Zuccotti Park, MTV may want to profile you.

It should be interesting to see how many applicants MTV gets, given that the network exists solely to make a profit by marketing corporate products to our nation’s youth. Good luck with the cognitive dissonance on that one.

Posted in Blogging, Business, Finance and Economics, Humor, Media, Politics, Socialism | Tagged , , , , | 15 Comments

If They Had the Votes, They Wouldn’t Need to Occupy Wall Street

I’ve been meaning to officially congratulate Chris Ladd for becoming a contributor at FrumForum, and wanted to highlight his post today about the Occupy Wall Street Movement. As many of you know, Chris has been a tireless and valuable contributor to Reflections of a Rational Republican. We are thrilled that he is gaining an even wider audience for his writing.

Posted in Blogging, Media, Policy, Politics, Socialism | Tagged , , , | 9 Comments