Armchair Quarterbacking in New Jersey

Posted on Tuesday, August 30, 2011 by Sean Patrick Hazlett

All right. First off, it is important to note that the soldiers you see here are National Guardsman. This is an important distinction, because these soldiers do not receive as much training or experience as active duty personnel.

Second, somebody clearly screwed up here. Driving trucks underwater with the windows open may be a technique, but it is one not found in any Army manual of which I am aware. Unlike tanks, these trucks do not appear to have fording kits.

That said, these soldiers deserve respect for selflessly doing their duty by helping the people of New Jersey during Hurricane Irene. The gentleman on the bridge deserves nothing but contempt for insulting people who are there to help him.

Posted in Humor, Leadership, Media | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Proving Obama Is a Failed President

Posted on Monday, August 29, 2011 by Sean Patrick Hazlett

Last week, Jonathan Alter at Bloomberg posed a tantalizing question: “you think Obama’s been a bad president? Prove it.” More specifically, he issues the following challenge to Obama-doubters:

“Your mission, Jim (and readers named something else), should you decide to accept it, is to identify where Obama has been a poor decision-maker. What, specifically, has he done wrong on policy? What, specifically, would you have done differently to create jobs? And what can any of the current Republican candidates offer that would be an improvement on the employment front?”

Today, conservative David Frum responded to Alter’s throwing down the gauntlet with three examples of the President’s poor decision-making. First, Obama outsourced the writing of the stimulus to Democrats, who filled it with items irrelevant to the economic crisis like Pell Grants, renewable energy credits, and community and rural development. Second, Obama failed to mobilize the Federal Reserve to support his fiscal stimulus. Third, Obama bet his presidency on a best-case scenario, and had no Plan B if the stimulus failed to achieve its desired results.

Points one and three seem fair. However, I think point two is a bit much, as the Federal Reserve is supposed to be independent from the President. However, Frum anticipated this counterargument and preemptively retorted by arguing “presidents can shape the Fed through their power to name Federal Reserve governors. Obama has failed to get his people on the board.” Personally, I think this response is weak, because even if the President appointed a sizeable majority of the Federal Reserve (something of which I am doubtful), once these individuals were in place, the President would have little leverage to bend them to his will.

Since Frum decided to accept the challenge, so did I. I think the following three policies demonstrate that President Obama is a poor decision-maker. Continue reading →

Posted in Business, Clean Energy, Clean Tech, Defense, Energy Security, Finance and Economics, Healthcare, International Security, Leadership, Media, Nuclear proliferation, Peak Oil, Policy, Politics, Unions, War | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 16 Comments

Could Michele Bachmann Really Bring Back $2 Gasoline?

Posted on Sunday, August 28, 2011 by Sean Patrick Hazlett

Earlier this month, Republican presidential hopeful Representative Michele Bachmann boldly declared, “Under President Bachmann you will see gasoline come down below $2 per gallon again…That will happen.”

She suggested she could achieve this goal by allowing more aggressive U.S. oil drilling in both Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and offshore.

On the surface, Bachmann’s claim seems fairly ridiculous given current gas prices. That said, would it actually be possible for a President to achieve less than $2 per gallon gas?

Continue reading →

Posted in Business, Clean Energy, Clean Tech, Energy Security, Finance and Economics, Peak Oil, Policy, Politics, Taxes, Technology | Tagged , , , | 6 Comments

Conflict Correlated with Climate

Posted on Saturday, August 27, 2011 by Sean Patrick Hazlett

Several months ago, I published the following chart to describe my theory on the underlying causes of instability.

Source: Reflections of a Rational Republican ©2011

I confidently asserted that instability is “a positive feedback loop driven by weather, energy and food prices, currency fluctuations, repression, and demography.” At the time, I provided no empirical evidence in support of this view.

However, this week’s Economist supplies evidence of what I always believed was the most speculative leg of my theory. That is, that weather and/or climate can be a key contributor to instability. Continue reading →

Posted in Climate Change, Defense, Food Security, International Security | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Why Is Jon Huntsman Running for President?

Posted on Saturday, August 27, 2011 by Chris Ladd

Jon Huntsman seems like a solid, reasonable guy with outstanding leadership credentials and a great head on his shoulders.  He speaks like an adult.  He has accomplished great things in both corporate life and public service, building an impressive resume that anyone would envy.

So why in all hell is he running for the GOP nomination for President?

Don’t misunderstand me.  I firmly believe that the American public, especially right now, is absolutely dying for the chance to elect a full-grown Republican to the White House.  A reasonable candidate who has held a real job, occasionally reads a book, and questions the voices in his head, would go down like a cool drink of water on an August day.  But if you think you’re that guy, you have to be prepared to fight like a wet raccoon for the GOP nomination.

Do not imagine that you’re going to stroll into the Republican nominating race, saying things like, “no one wants to be around a bunch of cranks” and cruise to victory.  Uncle Barry warned us all many years ago that those cranks were taking over the Party infrastructure.  He was right and they did.

Guess what?  As a rational candidate you’re only going to get to the voters by outfighting and outmaneuvering those very powerful cranks.

McCain’s 2000 run was a blueprint of what a GOP candidate who’s committed to sanity will face from the insiders that run this joint.  Any reasonable candidate who wants to run and win as a reasonable candidate will have to fight harder, better, and longer than he did, and be prepared to do it more than once.  Your chances of winning the first time around are nearly zero.  You’re gonna have to be prepared to stitch up your wounds, pay off your debts, and come back smarter and meaner a second time.

That candidate will have to be one tough, ugly, SOB.  Huntsman not only isn’t that guy, he seems oblivious to what he’s walked into.  Perhaps the best he can hope for is to go unnoticed.  If the constantly rotating “front-runner” status in this race ever turns in his direction, the people who took McCain down in South Carolina in 2000 will absolutely ruin this guy.  He may need to reserve some time in a nice, quiet institution instead of entertaining hypotheticals about a VP slot.

Dear Governor, Doctor, Ambassador, Secretary, Rocker (that’s right), Eagle Scout, CEO Huntsman:  If you’re serious about this, you better start landing punches soon, and don’t stop swinging even when your arms go numb and your eyes swell shut.  Find a safe place to hide your children immediately.  Especially any brown ones.

Please understand that in our Party right now rational is radical.  You are on the lonely fringe.  If you launched this campaign hoping for a stint at the Naval Observatory, by all means flee right now.  Don’t pause to pack a bag or send a tweet, just go.  Run fast and hard and don’t look back no matter what you hear coming behind you.  And don’t ever tell anyone you did this.

Most importantly, quit teasing us.  Those of us who long for a return to solid Republican leadership are getting cranky.

Posted in Leadership, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , , | 7 Comments

Rising Inequality and Associative Mating

Posted on Friday, August 26, 2011 by Sean Patrick Hazlett

One theory I have dabbled with about rising inequality in the United States is related to the concept of natural selection. Smart people marry other smart people and have smart children.

One might argue that this pattern has been constant throughout history, and therefore there is no reason to expect it to be any different today.

However, I disagree.

Continue reading →

Posted in Business, Education, Finance and Economics, Mathematics, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , , | 14 Comments

Leadership Is Not for the Lazy

Posted on Thursday, August 25, 2011 by Sean Patrick Hazlett

In 2003 or 2004, recently retired Army Chief of Staff General Eric Shinseki held a breakfast for Harvard students who participated in MIT’s ROTC program and military veterans at the Kennedy School of Government. At the time, the situation in Iraq was at one of its lowest points, and the General’s famous warning that invading Iraq would require something “on the order of several hundred thousand soldiers” was starting to seem very prescient.

However, it was not his commentary on the Iraq War that was most memorable. In fact, he refused to comment on it, because he did not want to send the troops a confused message while they were actively fighting a war.

What I remember most from the breakfast was the General’s humorous description of German Field Marshal Erich von Manstein’s leadership matrix pictured below.

Source: Henrik Bering via Field Marshal Erich von Manstein

Continue reading →

Posted in Defense, Leadership, Policy, Politics, War | Tagged , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Why Conservatives Are Cautious About Climate Change

Posted on Tuesday, August 23, 2011 by Chris Ladd

Rick Perry is making headlines with more Bachmannesque brayings. This time, he is accusing scientists of basically making up global warming as some sort of evil joke – the way they did with evolution.   As the competition to win the nomination of the Inherit the Wind Party heats up, it’s getting harder and harder for rational conservatives to get their point across on any subject.

Many reality-based conservatives are concerned about the shape of the debate over climate change.  Their concerns are being starved out by the low-fact diet that politicians like Perry are serving.  If we allow ourselves to be painted into an anti-science corner, we will lose this and other critical debates in the long run.

It’s important to recognize what the science does and doesn’t tell us about climate change.

Continue reading →

Posted in Climate Change, Politics, Science | Tagged , , , , , | 22 Comments

Is the Libyan War Over? Not By a Long Shot

Posted on Sunday, August 21, 2011 by Sean Patrick Hazlett

Al Jazeera reported today that Libyan opposition fighters just seized Tripoli’s Green Square and are celebrating a military victory over Qaddafi’s regime.

Now that rebel forces appear to have defeated Qaddafi’s loyalists, the next hurdle will be avoiding further bloodshed amongst themselves. Continue reading →

Posted in Defense, Energy Security, International Security, Middle East, Policy, Politics, Terrorism, War | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Are Conservatives More Patriotic Than Liberals?

Posted on Sunday, August 21, 2011 by Sean Patrick Hazlett

Source: Gallup

In May of 2011, Gallup published poll results on active duty military personnel / veteran, and non-veteran approval of President Obama’s job performance. Not surprisingly, the job approval rating for President Obama was lower across all age groups for active military / veterans than it was for non-veterans. Gallup’s explanation for this marked difference seems particularly instructive:

“For younger, post-draft-era veterans, individuals with certain regional, demographic, or psychographic backgrounds may be more likely to be Republican and more likely to join the military. For older veterans, their service in the military may have led them to a more Republican viewpoint on politics, either during their service or in later years.”

In fact, Gallup published a 2009 poll that shows precisely this trend: Continue reading →

Posted in Defense, International Security, Policy, Politics, War | Tagged , , , , , , | 25 Comments